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Handcrafted on Thursday, June 11, 2015
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Weekend Weather Pattern in Colorado
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We will be in a wet pattern through Saturday, and I bet you're not surprised to hear this. Moisture has been plentiful during May and early June, so why change things now?
The map below shows the forecast for relative humidity at 10,000 feet. This indicates that most of the state will see moist conditions and showers on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday before drier air invades from the northwest on Sunday.
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As you enjoy the mountains this weekend, you will need to think about the normal hazards of lightning and precipitation. Temperatures will be warm enough for most precipitation to fall as rain, though snow or graupel could accumulate above about 12,500 feet during heavier showers.
Speaking of snow, there is still a good amount of it near and above 10,500 feet, especially on shaded north-facing slopes. The combination of snow melt and our recent rains is leading to high water levels in streams, so be careful during crossings.
Scroll down for detailed forecasts by mountain range as well as the first in a series of nutritional tips for athletes. This is our first ever summer forecast, so let us know what you think of the format by replying to this email. We read and respond to every reply!
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Forecasts by Colorado Mountain Range
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Gores & North (Steamboat and the Gore Range)
Friday and Saturday will be similar days with lightning and rain showers during the midday and afternoon. Storms will move slowly on Friday and will come from the north or northwest on Saturday, so if you're hiking look in this direction to see approaching clouds and showers. Sunday will be the driest of the three days with only a very low chance of a quick shower. If you're searching for the driest day of the weekend, Sunday is the call.
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Front Range Mountains (Rocky Mountain National Park to Pikes Peak)
Be ready for steady rain along and east of the divide on Thursday evening through Friday morning. Accumulations of 1-2 inches will cause rivers and streams to rise, and the National Weather Service already issued Flash Flood Warnings for some areas. Following the steady rain, be mindful of a few thunderstorms on Friday and especially Saturday afternoon, while Sunday will be drier and is my pick as the best day of the weekend.
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Nutrition Tip #1: The Day Before a Big Effort
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Hydrate & Carb Load
Hydration, above all else, is the single most important element of success at altitude. Aim to consume 100Â-135 ounces of water the day before to a big hike or ride. I also find that carb loading with complex carbs the night before helps ensure you have the energy for a long day of strenuous climbing/hiking. While high fat foods are energy dense, they require more oxygen to metabolize. At altitude, your body needs all the oxygen it can muster.
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- This tip is brought to you by Kevin Webber, founder of Fourpoints Bar. Each week, Kevin will give away one box of bars to a person on the Trail Forecast email list. You will receive a special email if you're the winner!
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Central Mountains (Tenmile, Mosquito, Sawatch)
The best moisture over Colorado will reside near and to the east of these mountain ranges, so unfortunately I don't see Friday, Saturday, or Sunday as completely dry. Look for steadier rain on Thursday night into Friday, and afternoon showers popping up on Friday and Saturday. Like the other mountain ranges, Sunday will likely be the driest day of the next three. No matter, there will still be a few afternoon storms on Sunday, so don't let your guard down even though you might see clearer skies to the north and west.
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Central Mountains (Elk Range, near Aspen and Crested Butte)
Friday will likely be the day with the highest chance of afternoon showers. On Saturday and Sunday, moisture will be pushed to the east, and I think most of the showers will stay near and east of Independence Pass and Cottonwood Pass. This means that areas near and west of Aspen and Crested Butte have a decent chance of experiencing drier weather on Saturday, and an even better chance of dry weather on Sunday. Any storm clouds you see to the east on Sunday shouldn't pose much of a threat as these rain showers should stay to your east.
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Sangre de Cristo Mountains (near Great Sand Dunes National Park)
This forecast is going to be a broken record, folks. There will be midday and afternoon thunderstorms on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. While other areas of the state experience drier air on Sunday, moisture will linger in the southern and eastern mountains, which means that I must forecast showery weather through Sunday in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Lightning strikes are not something to mess with, so keep an eye on the sky and don't be shy about descending to lower and less exposed terrain if a storm is moving toward you.
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San Juan Mountains (southern range, near Telluride, Silverton, Pagosa Springs)
Mother nature is making up for a lack of consistent snow during the winter with plenty of precipitation during May and early June. Unfortunately, the wet weather will continue through this weekend, with midday and afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Drier air will try to push into the San Juans from the northwest on Saturday and Sunday, so it's possible that areas to the northwest of Rt 550 could be drier than areas east of Rt 550, but I have low confidence in calling for dry weather in any of the mountain areas over the weekend. Rainfall is a positive feedback: When the ground stays wet, evaporation will keep the air moist, and the sun turns this moisture into midday and afternoon storms. There will be changes, though, as the medium-range forecast points toward drier and warmer weather later next week.
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When to expect our next email?
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We'll land back in your inbox on Thursday, June 18th. Want these emails more frequently? Want us to change the format? Reply to this email and let us know!
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Who's in charge around here?
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Today's email was written by meteorologist Joel Gratz, based in Boulder, Colorado. Helping with technology and forecasting are Andrew Murray and Sam Collentine.
This is the same crew that brings you powder forecasts during the winter months via OpenSnow.com. We found ourselves with too much free time during the summer, so we are expanding into summer forecasts to help you plan your hiking and biking adventures.
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