Colorado Daily Snow
By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 8 years ago April 24, 2015
Heaviest snow should fall on Sunday night into Monday morning
Summary:
- Scattered showers Friday afternoon -- sound familiar?
- Same deal on Saturday afternoon
- Best chance of steadier snow will occur Sunday late afternoon into Monday morning
- Deepest accumulations above 10,000 feet, some snow down to 8,000 feet
- Lingering snow showers on Monday
- Tuesday and beyond looks warmer and drier
Details:
Another day, another forecast for scattered afternoon showers on Friday. Actually, today is a bit different as a few showers are moving across the Grand Mesa early on Friday morning, so it's not an altogether "Groundhog Day" experience for me. Can you tell that I'm a little bored of forecasting "afternoon showers"?!
Looking ahead to the weekend, Saturday morning will start out similar to Friday morning. Most places will be dry and sunny, though there could be a few showers that push through central and northern Colorado during the morning hours. Then as the day heats up, look for more numerous showers during the afternoon and evening.
The forecast for Sunday? Finally a change! While the morning should start out on the drier side for most mountains, a medium-strength storm will slowly move from the four corners across northern New Mexico. As this happens, moisture and lift will increase over Colorado. So look for some showers to start early in the day, especially in the San Juans, and then showers to increase during the afternoon.
The heaviest and steadiest snow and rain will likely fall on Sunday night into Monday morning. This is why I think the best chance for powder at Abasin and Loveland will occur on Monday morning.
Temperatures will be rather warm with this storm, with snow levels around 9,000-10,000 feet. During the heaviest precipitation on Sunday night, the snow level could drop to 8,000 feet.
Which mountains will see the most snow and rain? Like last week's storm, areas along and east of the divide should be the winners. Typically, the highest precipitation amounts with these storms occur in the eastern foothills between about 7,000 to 10,000 feet.
One difference between this storm and last week's storm is that this storm will take a more southerly track. This should allow the San Juans to see more snow than they did last week.
The map immediately below shows the Canadian weather model's forecast, made yesterday, for total precipitation through Monday. The bullseye is near the northern Front Range, with healthy amounts all along the front range and over the San Juans in southwestern Colorado.
Below is the same forecast model, except this forecast was created this morning. The two maps are similar, but the newer model below moves the bulleye to the southern Front Range.
It is normal for the bullseye in the precipitation to move around, especially with slow-moving storms, where small wobbles make a big difference.
The take-home point is that mountains along and east of the divide should see the most moisture, likely 1-2 inches, while the San Juans could see 1+ inches, and other mountains would likely be closer to 0.50 to 0.75 inches.
Converting this to snow, my best guess for Abasin and Loveland would be a storm total around 10 inches (+/-, of course), and some areas in the foothills in the front range could see 2 feet of snow. Remember, the deepest accumulations will likely be above 10,000 feet, with the snow level dropping to around 8,000 feet during times of heavier precipitation on Sunday night.
On Monday, look for lingering snow, especially along and east of the divide. Enjoy the powder in the morning!
Then Tuesday through the rest of next week looks warmer and drier, though there could still be some afternoon showers, especially later in the week.
JOEL GRATZ
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Geography Key:
Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass
Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass
East of the Divide
Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass
Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn
Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton, Durango, Wolf Creek (Telluride and Silverton are on the northern side of the southern mountains)