Note at 650am Tuesday: Below is the update I posted Monday afternoon. I'll write a new post a little later this morning. Stay tuned!

-----

Summary:

• Northwest flow delivered Sunday night ... details below!
• More chances of snow this week, weekend, and early next week
• This week's storms look weak, but could still be nice
• Early next week looks more interesting
• Colder weather is likely around Christmas Day
• The long-range outlook through New Years is promising

 

Details:

Ok, sorry for the late post today. I had to get out and test the product on Monday morning (evidence below), so thanks for your patience. Now back to your regularly scheduled full update.

First, let's start with the non surprises. The storm on Saturday night and Sunday delivered about 10 inches to most mountains. The San Juans got the brunt of the storm Saturday night with about 8-15 inches, then the rest of Colorado saw on-and-off snow showers throughout the day on Sunday, which turned out to be a nice little powder day, though the crust was evident under the powder. During the Sunday part of the storm, the atmosphere cooperated with the forecast rather well, and this underdog of a storm brought happiness to most mountains.

Then on Sunday night, the magic happened, and the atmosphere stopped cooperating with the forecast. I thought 1-3 inches of snow could fall after lifts closed on Sunday afternoon as the storm wound down. The reality was that the snowfall actually was steady or intensified in some spots. As best as I can tell, the heaviest snow fell Sunday night around Steamboat, Copper, Vail, Beaver Creek, Monarch, and Irwin (west of Crested Butte). Many of these areas saw 6-10 more inches Sunday night into Monday morning, for storm totals around 18-20 inches.

Why was the forecast so wrong? Well, I saw that there was good moisture, temperatures were cooling to about 10-15F at mountain top, and the winds were from the northwest. All of this usually yields at least a few inches for central and northern Colorado. However, the storm energy (vorticity) was weak, and while there were some other large-scale weather factors at play that could provide more energy to lift the air and create snow, I decided that a forecast of a few inches was probably going to be right in more locations than it was wrong.

And I think that was true. But some areas did get much, much more snow than I forecasted. It was an odd event because "traditional" northwest flow usually favors Vail, Copper, Breckenridge, Loveland, Steamboat, and Winter Park, with Monarch and Irwin sometimes getting in on the action as well. In this case, Beaver Creek saw as much snow as Vail from the northwest flow, which is atypical. And Loveland didn't see as much as they usually do.

I'm offering all these details not as a cop out (the forecast wasn't perfect, I know:-), but to help educate you on the factors at play and how we don't always have a good handle on everything. In short, the weather situation on Sunday night was promising, but of all the mountains in central and northern Colorado that could have seen decent snowfall, it was impossible to predict which mountains would measure 10+ inches and those that would only see another 2-4 inches.

One day I'm going to figure out these details, but for now, let's just enjoy what these details produced in the back bowls of Vail on Monday morning. I shot this video (turned into a .gif) and the skier is a friend of mine.

There was no need to milk it for the camera. This was full-on faceshot powder. The crust underneath was still evident in some spots, but non-south facing areas were less crusty, as were the trees.

Ok...enough about the past. What about the future?

I can't offer any details of big, upcoming powder days. But I can say that the next two weeks should be far more interesting and snowy that the previous two weeks.

We could see a few snow showers on Tuesday, then a slightly more powerful storm will bring snow Wednesday and Thursday. The southern mountains have the best chance of seeing a few inches on Wednesday, then the central and northern mountains could see a few inches on Wednesday night through Thursday night. 

After this, the details are murky as the models do not agree. A few more weak systems could move through the northern half of Colorado between Friday and Monday, so watch out for the possibility of a few waves of decent snowfall during this time, but again, I have little confidence in any of the details.

Early next week, between about Monday and next Wednesday the 24th, an interesting pattern is shapping up for the northern half of the state with a west or northwest wind and some moisture. How this all shakes out remains to be seen, so stay tuned.

Then between about Christmas Day and New Years, the weather pattern is setting up to be generally cold and snowy. I can't promise big powder for everyone, but the pattern is favorable for happiness (based on snow bringing happiness, of course).

As I close out this update, I'll loop back to the beginning of the post and the surprise that happened on Sunday night.

To get big snow, we usually need a favorable weather pattern (based on temperature, adequate moisture, and wind direction, etc). However, given this favorable pattern, it's still difficult to impossible to predict the tiny details of the atmosphere that make the difference between getting pretty good accumulations and being surprised on the high side. So while I wish I could forecast these details, and that there wouldn't be any surprises (maybe in my lifetime?), for now, even if I'm not forecasting big snowfall amounts, I'll try to talk about when conditions are right for some upside surprises.

Next update on Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading and loving snow as much as I do!

JOEL GRATZ

PS - I'll announce the winner of the Wagner Skis contest this week!

PPS - I saw this sign over the weekend (it's from the Dew Tour in Breckenridge) and had to post. Hey, if the landing is clear and you know what you're doing, why not Huck It:-)